Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 8.421961e-05 0.000100 0.000117 0.000136 0.000158 0.000181 0.000207
2025-01-19 6.473191e-05 0.000086 0.000110 0.000139 0.000173 0.000212 0.000257
2025-01-26 5.077320e-05 0.000073 0.000100 0.000134 0.000175 0.000223 0.000280
2025-02-02 4.195895e-05 0.000066 0.000096 0.000135 0.000184 0.000242 0.000314
2025-02-09 3.498003e-05 0.000059 0.000091 0.000134 0.000189 0.000255 0.000340
2025-02-16 3.116445e-05 0.000056 0.000091 0.000139 0.000201 0.000278 0.000377
2025-02-23 2.703811e-05 0.000052 0.000088 0.000140 0.000209 0.000294 0.000406
2025-03-02 2.153353e-05 0.000046 0.000081 0.000134 0.000207 0.000299 0.000421
2025-03-09 1.777062e-05 0.000041 0.000077 0.000132 0.000209 0.000308 0.000440
2025-03-16 1.498086e-05 0.000038 0.000074 0.000131 0.000213 0.000319 0.000463
2025-03-23 1.302182e-05 0.000035 0.000073 0.000132 0.000219 0.000333 0.000490
2025-03-30 1.085779e-05 0.000032 0.000070 0.000131 0.000222 0.000343 0.000510
2025-04-06 8.313744e-06 0.000028 0.000065 0.000127 0.000221 0.000349 0.000528
2025-04-13 7.142486e-06 0.000027 0.000064 0.000130 0.000231 0.000369 0.000565
2025-04-20 5.211844e-06 0.000023 0.000059 0.000125 0.000228 0.000373 0.000579
2025-04-27 4.245441e-06 0.000021 0.000058 0.000126 0.000235 0.000388 0.000609
2025-05-04 3.283515e-06 0.000019 0.000055 0.000125 0.000238 0.000399 0.000633
2025-05-11 2.917298e-06 0.000019 0.000056 0.000129 0.000249 0.000422 0.000674
2025-05-18 2.365277e-06 0.000017 0.000055 0.000131 0.000256 0.000438 0.000705
2025-05-25 1.561175e-06 0.000015 0.000051 0.000126 0.000252 0.000439 0.000716
2025-06-01 1.076519e-06 0.000013 0.000048 0.000123 0.000253 0.000446 0.000735
2025-06-08 7.639135e-07 0.000012 0.000046 0.000122 0.000256 0.000457 0.000759
2025-06-15 5.709370e-07 0.000011 0.000046 0.000124 0.000262 0.000472 0.000789